Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
June 22, 2026 · $242k volume
Why it resolved
No direct diplomatic meeting with Rubio attendance occurred by the June 30 deadline. Negotiations proceeded through intermediaries with Rubio communicating demands via Senate testimony (June 2), but no in-person meeting met the resolution criteria. The market priced in hope of a direct meeting after deal-in-principle announcements (May 24), jumping from 4¢ to 21¢, but Rubio's absence from direct talks and his Senate-based positioning (June 2) signaled he would not attend, causing the price to decay from 21¢ to 7¢ by market close.
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Causal record
Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
Reliability read
Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
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