Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
June 22, 2026 · $7.9M volume
Why it resolved
Trump's public declaration on June 20-21 that Starmer would resign precipitated the final collapse of institutional support. The market had priced mounting pressure from cabinet resignations (Streeting, Healey) and Andy Burnham's by-election victory on June 18 positioning him as successor, but Trump's pre-announcement forced Starmer's hand and lock in the move to 100¢ when he formally announced on June 22 10:40 UTC. The market had already climbed from 18¢ to 64¢ in anticipation by June 20, then jumped the final 36pp to 100¢ on the formal announcement.
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Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
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Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
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