Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
June 19, 2026 · $431k volume
Why it resolved
Andy Burnham's personal popularity and Robert Kenyon's social media scandal (exposed May 22-27, 2026) triggered a collapse in the Restore Britain candidate Rebecca Shepherd's odds. Burnham won decisively with 54.81% on June 18; Kenyon came second with 34.51%, and Shepherd finished third with 6.84%. The market priced Shepherd's third-place finish as the scandal eliminated any scenario for her advancement. The price fell hard from 46¢ to 10¢ over May 22-23 as the scandal broke, then oscillated (20¢ on poll release, back to 8¢ as Burnham's lead solidified) before settling at 0¢.
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Was the price honest
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