Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
June 24, 2026 · $2.9M volume
Why it resolved
Paloma Valencia finished third with 6.92% in the May 31, 2026 first round of Colombia's presidential election, failing to advance to the runoff. The market had priced in a chance of a runoff between her and others, but after De la Espriella (43.75%) and Cepeda (40.90%) emerged as top two, Valencia was mathematically eliminated. The price had already decayed from 45¢ in mid-April to 9¢ by June 21 as polls showed her underperforming and the first round confirmed third place—a steady repricing as Valencia's path to victory closed progressively between the April peak and the May election.
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Was the price honest
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