Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
June 24, 2026 · $2.4M volume
Why it resolved
Fajardo announced his third presidential candidacy on July 20, 2025, initially priced at ~50¢ in betting markets. However, his actual polling at 8.7% in July-August 2025 proved far below the market's implied probability; traders repriced him from 50¢ to 17¢ (-33pp) by August 1, recognizing the gap between speculative initial support and ground-level polling data. Further polling stalls near 9.8% in January 2026 drove another decline (17¢ → 6¢, -12pp) as the May 31 first round neared. He ultimately polled 4.26%, failing to make the runoff—a clean underperformance of the market's early optimism.
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Was the price honest
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