Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
June 23, 2026 · $217k volume
Why it resolved
US State Department announced on June 19, 2026 that Israeli and Lebanese delegations would hold official diplomatic talks in Washington on June 23-24, following ceasefire renewal. The market had already priced this in with a +14pp move on June 21 (84¢→98¢), anticipating the confirmed meeting by 2 days. The meeting occurred on schedule on June 23, triggering the YES resolution at 100¢.
Orakll Subscriber
Unlock the full causal record
Premium reveals the sourced news events that drove this resolution and the per-market reliability read — was the market well-priced, and when did it know.
For agents: these are labelled resolution records — every meaningful market that resolved, tagged with why (decisive cause + sourced causal events) and a reliability score. That's ground truth plus causality, the data layer that lets a trading or research agent backtest its theses against what actually moved markets — served by the list_resolutions and explain_resolution MCP tools.
Causal record
Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
Reliability read
Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
Agent corpus
Built to be machine-read
The same labelled records power the resolution MCP tools for your agent.