Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?
June 26, 2026 · $179k volume
Why it resolved
Abelardo de la Espriella won the Colombian presidential runoff on June 21, 2026 with 49.7% vs Cepeda's 48.7% (0.97pp margin, falling within the 0-5% bracket). Preliminary results were announced early on June 22, 2026 UTC; the market had drifted to 26¢ by June 21 20:00 UTC, then surged +60pp to 98¢ by June 22 00:00 UTC as the victory became official — a clean reaction to the confirmed outcome.
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Why it resolved, with sources
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Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
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