US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
June 21, 2026 · $3.2M volume
Why it resolved
On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran reached a 14-point memorandum of understanding framework (the market jumped +50pp from 32¢ to 82¢ in anticipation), which then materialized into an actual in-person diplomatic meeting on June 21, 2026, at Burgenstock resort in Switzerland when VP Vance and Iranian PM Abbas Araghchi held an opening session. The market front-ran the news, pricing in the MOU framework days before the formal in-person meeting, then surged again on June 20 (+54pp to 82¢) as delegations arrived in Switzerland, confirming the meeting would happen.
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Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
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Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
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