Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
June 22, 2026 · $3.6M volume
Why it resolved
Keir Starmer announced his resignation as UK Prime Minister on June 22, 2026, after months of mounting pressure from over 80 Labour MPs, including two cabinet minister resignations in the days preceding the announcement. The market had already climbed 78¢ → 94¢ (+16pp) on June 20 as the internal party revolt intensified, then locked in at 100¢ upon the formal announcement — it front-ran the resignation by two days.
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Causal record
Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
Reliability read
Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
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