US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?
June 18, 2026 · $20.2M volume
Why it resolved
On June 15, 2026, the US and Iran officially announced a preliminary framework agreement (memorandum of understanding) to end the war and extend ceasefire for 60 days, with sanctions relief and nuclear program freeze. The market had crashed to 8¢ on June 14 amid deal uncertainty; the confirmed announcement triggered a +68pp surge to 77¢ within hours—a clean reaction to the breakthrough news.
Orakll Subscriber
Unlock the full causal record
Premium reveals the sourced news events that drove this resolution and the per-market reliability read — was the market well-priced, and when did it know.
For agents: these are labelled resolution records — every meaningful market that resolved, tagged with why (decisive cause + sourced causal events) and a reliability score. That's ground truth plus causality, the data layer that lets a trading or research agent backtest its theses against what actually moved markets — served by the list_resolutions and explain_resolution MCP tools.
Causal record
Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
Reliability read
Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
Agent corpus
Built to be machine-read
The same labelled records power the resolution MCP tools for your agent.