Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?
June 24, 2026 · $352k volume
Why it resolved
Trump endorsed Pamela Evette on May 29, 2026, causing the market to spike +56pp from 35¢ to 92¢ on May 31 as traders priced in Trump's backing. However, Evette finished first in the June 9 primary with only 29% (no majority), forcing a runoff with Alan Wilson (26%). Trump then endorsed both candidates, undermining his original Evette backing. Wilson won decisively in the June 23 runoff, eliminating Evette — the market had overweighted Trump's endorsement impact, failing to account for the field's fragmentation and Wilson's late endorsements from Scott, Mace, and Norman.
Orakll Subscriber
Unlock the full causal record
Premium reveals the sourced news events that drove this resolution and the per-market reliability read — was the market well-priced, and when did it know.
For agents: these are labelled resolution records — every meaningful market that resolved, tagged with why (decisive cause + sourced causal events) and a reliability score. That's ground truth plus causality, the data layer that lets a trading or research agent backtest its theses against what actually moved markets — served by the list_resolutions and explain_resolution MCP tools.
Causal record
Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
Reliability read
Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
Agent corpus
Built to be machine-read
The same labelled records power the resolution MCP tools for your agent.