Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
June 19, 2026 · $1.4M volume
Why it resolved
Andy Burnham's candidacy was confirmed May 19, 2026, after Josh Simons's resignation (May 14), lifting the market from 50¢ to 66¢ by May 16 as uncertainty resolved into concrete candidacy. Robert Kenyon's social media scandal (exposed May 21 by Hope Not Hate) then compounded Reform UK's weakness; by June 2, as coverage intensified, the market had repriced to 76¢. Final polling (June 14–17) showing Burnham at 49% vs. Kenyon at 37% locked in the victory; the market climbed to 88¢ by June 17 eve-of-election. Burnham won decisively on June 18 with 54.81%, exceeding polling expectations, and the contract settled at 100¢ on June 19 — each major move (candidacy, scandal fallout, final polling, result) was a clean reaction matched to news, with minimal overshoot.
Orakll Subscriber
Unlock the full causal record
Premium reveals the sourced news events that drove this resolution and the per-market reliability read — was the market well-priced, and when did it know.
For agents: these are labelled resolution records — every meaningful market that resolved, tagged with why (decisive cause + sourced causal events) and a reliability score. That's ground truth plus causality, the data layer that lets a trading or research agent backtest its theses against what actually moved markets — served by the list_resolutions and explain_resolution MCP tools.
Causal record
Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
Reliability read
Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
Agent corpus
Built to be machine-read
The same labelled records power the resolution MCP tools for your agent.