Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?
June 19, 2026 · $208k volume
Why it resolved
Convergent poll for The Times (fieldwork June 2-12, published ~June 9) showed Rebecca Shepherd's Restore Britain at only 5%, well below the 10% threshold required; the price collapsed -32pp from 49¢ to 16¢ that day, pricing in the disappointment and anticipating the final 6.84% result.
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Causal record
Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
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Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
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