Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
June 22, 2026 · $460k volume
Why it resolved
Failed Islamabad Talks on April 11-12, 2026 ended without agreement on Iran's nuclear program and Strait of Hormuz issues. Trump's subsequent naval blockade announcement on April 13 and activation eliminated prospects for near-term Trump attendance at diplomatic meetings, causing the market to price out the outcome. The price collapsed from 24¢ to 3¢ by April 15 as the blockade took effect and diplomatic tensions escalated, then briefly rebounded to 17¢ on April 17 when Trump signaled willingness to extend ceasefire negotiations, before falling again to 4¢ on April 19 when Trump authorized military action against Iranian shipping.
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Causal record
Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
Reliability read
Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
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