US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
June 18, 2026 · $12.7M volume
Why it resolved
On June 15, 2026, the U.S. and Iran officially announced a framework agreement (14-point memorandum of understanding) with a confirmed signing ceremony scheduled for June 19, 2026 at Switzerland's Bürgenstock resort. Point 1 committed to 'immediate and permanent termination' of military operations on all fronts, satisfying the market's criterion for a permanent peace deal. The market had already jumped from 54¢ to 96¢ in the 24 hours before the June 15 announcement (by 23:00 UTC June 14), then locked in at 100¢—it front-ran the official confirmation by hours and correctly priced the framework as equivalent to the permanent deal.
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Causal record
Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
Reliability read
Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
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