Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
June 24, 2026 · $1.2M volume
Why it resolved
Roy Barreras had negligible support (<1% polling) throughout the campaign. De la Espriella surged from 1.1% in March 2025 to double digits by late 2025 (especially around October 2025 when Cepeda won the Progressive primary), establishing himself as a viable alternative to the left. The market repriced Barreras' chances downward as the field consolidated, with the October 20 spike to 29¢ reflecting renewed betting on alternative candidates, followed by a sharp collapse to 7¢ on October 24 as it became clear the real race was between Cepeda and de la Espriella, not Barreras.
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Was the price honest
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