US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
June 18, 2026 · $177.4M volume
Why it resolved
On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a framework agreement to end military hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with formal signing scheduled for June 19. The market had been trading at 18¢ just hours before, then spiked +64pp to 82¢ on the announcement — a sharp reactive move as traders priced in the credibility of a permanent deal being imminent, followed by a final +14pp move to 96¢ on June 15 as details solidified.
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Was the price honest
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