Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
June 24, 2026 · $6.9M volume
Why it resolved
De la Espriella's dramatic rise from 1.1% support in March 2025 to leading first-round polls by May 2026 was driven by his security-focused platform gaining traction. The final surge occurred in late May 2026 (52¢ → 74¢ on May 26) as final polling showed him leading Cepeda going into the May 31 first round, where he won with 43.7% vs Cepeda's 40.9%; he then narrowly won the June 21 runoff 49.66% to 48.70%, with the market pricing in his victory from the first-round result onwards.
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Causal record
Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
Reliability read
Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
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