US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?
June 20, 2026 · $2.6M volume
Why it resolved
Iran's public refusal on June 13 to commit to Trump's announced June 14 signing, with Iranian officials stating "the exact time of signing the memorandum will not be tomorrow" and "we must be cautious." The market crashed -26pp from 65¢ to 13¢, then bled toward zero as the June 15 deadline neared without a qualifying in-person diplomatic meeting, resolving NO.
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Causal record
Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
Reliability read
Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
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