Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?
June 19, 2026 · $1.1M volume
Why it resolved
On May 18, 2026, a jury in Oakland federal court ruled against Elon Musk, finding his claims barred by statute of limitations. The market had been pricing in slim odds since late February, then collapsed entirely on the verdict — the May 19 drop from 22¢ to 1¢ was the final repricing as 'No' locked in after a three-week trial ended with a rapid jury decision (under two hours) against Musk.
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Causal record
Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
Reliability read
Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
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