Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
June 24, 2026 · $478k volume
Why it resolved
Juan Carlos Pinzón's weak polling performance in November 2025 (6% support in conservative primary field) signaled he was a long-shot candidate. The market had opened at 14¢ but collapsed to 3¢ on November 10, 2025 as traders repriced his odds downward based on poor showing relative to leading conservative candidates like De la Espriella (17%) and Dávila (10%). The market ultimately settled to 0¢ when De la Espriella won the runoff in June 2026.
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Causal record
Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
Reliability read
Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
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