Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?
June 20, 2026 · $583k volume
Why it resolved
The US and Iran officially released the full text of the 14-point memorandum of understanding on June 17, 2026, making it widely available to the public. The market had already anticipated this on June 16, moving from 82¢ to 92¢ (+10pp), front-running the official release by one day based on leaked drafts published in Arabic-language media on June 16.
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Why it resolved, with sources
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Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
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