US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
June 21, 2026 · $1.4M volume
Why it resolved
On June 17, 2026, Trump signed the Islamabad Memorandum with Iranian President Pezeshkian at Versailles during the G7 Summit (1:37 PM EDT), representing an official diplomatic meeting that satisfied the resolution criteria. The market had anticipated this moment across multiple prior moves: June 15 saw a +20pp jump to 92¢ as the signing became imminent, then June 20 saw a final +15pp move to 98¢ as confirmation solidified, locked in at near-certainty by resolution on June 21.
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For agents: these are labelled resolution records — every meaningful market that resolved, tagged with why (decisive cause + sourced causal events) and a reliability score. That's ground truth plus causality, the data layer that lets a trading or research agent backtest its theses against what actually moved markets — served by the list_resolutions and explain_resolution MCP tools.
Causal record
Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
Reliability read
Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
Agent corpus
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