Starmer out by August 31, 2026?
June 22, 2026 · $192k volume
Why it resolved
Keir Starmer announced his resignation as UK Prime Minister on June 22, 2026, after weeks of pressure from his Labour Party following devastating local election losses in May 2026 (losing >1,000 council seats) and Andy Burnham's decisive by-election victory. The market had front-run this outcome, jumping to 72¢ on June 13 (+21pp) and reaching 87¢ by June 19 (+16pp), before the formal announcement locked in the contract at 100¢—the market correctly anticipated the resignation days before it was formally announced.
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Why it resolved, with sources
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Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
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