Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
June 24, 2026 · $1.2M volume
Why it resolved
Claudia López's presidential candidacy collapsed as she failed to build sufficient political support and voter enthusiasm. Her polling plunged from 11.7% in February to 3.6% by April 2026, with particular defection among urban progressive and LGBTQ voters who had been her core base. The market repriced her chances across 2025–2026 as it became clear she would not advance from the first round, ultimately finishing fifth with 0.95% of votes on May 31, 2026, forcing resolution to NO.
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Causal record
Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
Reliability read
Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
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