US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
June 18, 2026 · $14.4M volume
Why it resolved
President Trump and Iran's leadership announced a 14-point memorandum of understanding on June 15, 2026, establishing an immediate permanent ceasefire on all fronts and committing to remove the naval blockade within 30 days. The market rallied +20pp from 76¢ to 96¢ within hours of the announcement—a clean reaction to the framework agreement—and locked in at 100¢ by June 18, pricing the MOU as a binding commitment to permanent peace per the resolution criteria.
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Causal record
Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
Reliability read
Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
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