Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?
June 18, 2026 · $1.2M volume
Why it resolved
Trump announced a Memorandum of Understanding with Iran on June 15, 2026, that includes unfreezing Iranian assets held abroad as part of a 60-day negotiation framework. The market priced this agreement heavily over the final days, jumping from 68¢ to 84¢ on June 16 (+16pp) as the deal became public, then locking at 100¢ on June 18 at resolution—a clean reaction to confirmed agreement.
Orakll Subscriber
Unlock the full causal record
Premium reveals the sourced news events that drove this resolution and the per-market reliability read — was the market well-priced, and when did it know.
For agents: these are labelled resolution records — every meaningful market that resolved, tagged with why (decisive cause + sourced causal events) and a reliability score. That's ground truth plus causality, the data layer that lets a trading or research agent backtest its theses against what actually moved markets — served by the list_resolutions and explain_resolution MCP tools.
Causal record
Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
Reliability read
Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
Agent corpus
Built to be machine-read
The same labelled records power the resolution MCP tools for your agent.