Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12?
June 24, 2026 · $184k volume
Why it resolved
Micah Lasher's consolidation of institutional backing culminated in his primary victory on June 23, 2026, decisively defeating Alex Bores 39% to 35%. The market had priced Bores' decline throughout 2025-2026 as endorsements from Jerry Nadler (Feb 2026), Michael Bloomberg ($10M super PAC, March 2026), and unions cascaded to Lasher; the price collapsed from 38¢ to 0¢ on June 24 as primary results confirmed Bores' loss.
Orakll Subscriber
Unlock the full causal record
Premium reveals the sourced news events that drove this resolution and the per-market reliability read — was the market well-priced, and when did it know.
For agents: these are labelled resolution records — every meaningful market that resolved, tagged with why (decisive cause + sourced causal events) and a reliability score. That's ground truth plus causality, the data layer that lets a trading or research agent backtest its theses against what actually moved markets — served by the list_resolutions and explain_resolution MCP tools.
Causal record
Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
Reliability read
Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
Agent corpus
Built to be machine-read
The same labelled records power the resolution MCP tools for your agent.