Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
June 18, 2026 · $21.7M volume
Why it resolved
The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% on June 17, 2026, with no 50+ basis point increase. The market, which began trading around 10¢ reflecting odds of a hike, decayed to 0¢ as the meeting date approached and no aggressive rate action materialized. Removing "patient" language from the statement and signaling future hikes later in the year were not enough to trigger the immediate 50+ bp move the contract required—the market repriced the non-event as resolution day neared.
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Was the price honest
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