US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
June 18, 2026 · $49.0M volume
Why it resolved
On June 14-15, 2026, the US and Iran announced a framework agreement ending military hostilities and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with formal signing scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. The market had already begun repricing upward on June 15 at 10:00 UTC, jumping +48pp from 46¢ to 94¢ as news of the deal framework broke—a direct reaction to the announcement. The price then locked in near its highs (94¢+) through resolution on June 18.
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For agents: these are labelled resolution records — every meaningful market that resolved, tagged with why (decisive cause + sourced causal events) and a reliability score. That's ground truth plus causality, the data layer that lets a trading or research agent backtest its theses against what actually moved markets — served by the list_resolutions and explain_resolution MCP tools.
Causal record
Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
Reliability read
Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
Agent corpus
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