US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
June 21, 2026 · $7.0M volume
Why it resolved
On June 21, 2026, US Vice President JD Vance, along with envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, met in-person with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Iranian officials at the Bürgenstock Resort in Switzerland. This was a direct, in-person diplomatic meeting between official representatives acting with government authorization, publicly acknowledged by both governments — exactly meeting the resolution criteria. The market had already run from 52¢ to 95¢ in the hours before (June 20 recovery from the June 19 scare), and locked in at 100¢ upon confirmation of the meeting, reflecting strong front-running of the diplomatic breakthrough.
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Why it resolved, with sources
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Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
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