Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15?
June 23, 2026 · $221k volume
Why it resolved
On June 8-9, 2026, Yemen's Houthis announced a complete ban on Israeli maritime navigation in the Red Sea and declared missile attacks against Israeli targets. The market priced this as an existential threat to Bab el-Mandeb traffic, collapsing from 48¢ to 5¢ (-44pp) as traders expected the strait to effectively close. However, by the June 15 deadline, IMF PortWatch data showed the 7-day moving average of transit calls never fell to ≤10 despite the threats—shipping disruptions did not reach the closure threshold, and the market resolved NO on June 23.
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