Will Vicky Dávila win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
June 24, 2026 · $3.0M volume
Why it resolved
Abelardo de la Espriella, an independent right-wing lawyer who surged from 1.1% polling in March 2025 to 43.7% in the May 31, 2026 first round, defeated Dávila and all other candidates. Dávila's odds collapsed starting August 2025 (-27pp) as de la Espriella's unexpected rise became evident; she was eliminated from the right-wing coalition's March 2026 primary by Paloma Valencia, then the market further deteriorated through late 2025 as de la Espriella emerged as the broader frontrunner, finally settling to 0¢ when de la Espriella narrowly won the June 21 runoff with 49.66% of the vote.
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Was the price honest
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