Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
June 18, 2026 · $31.0M volume
Why it resolved
The December 10, 2025 FOMC decision and forward guidance revealed no rate hike would occur by June 2026. The Fed cut by 25bp and its dot plot showed nine officials expecting hikes only later in 2026, not before June. The market, which opened at 25¢ pricing in a 25bp June hike, repriced sharply downward on December 12 from 25¢ to 3¢ (-22pp) as traders absorbed that no increase would happen. On June 17, the Fed held rates steady, confirming the market's revised expectation and locking in the NO resolution at 0¢.
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Why it resolved, with sources
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Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
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