Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
June 19, 2026 · $5.8M volume
Why it resolved
Andy Burnham won the Makerfield by-election on June 18, 2026 with 54.8% of the vote (24,927 votes), decisively defeating Rebecca Shepherd who received only 6.8% (3,111 votes). The market resolved NO on June 19 as results confirmed Shepherd could not win; the contract drifted from ~6¢ to 0¢ as her elimination became mathematically certain.
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Causal record
Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
Reliability read
Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
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