Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
June 24, 2026 · $7.3M volume
Why it resolved
Abelardo de la Espriella defeated Ivan Cepeda Castro in Colombia's June 21, 2026 runoff election by less than 1 percentage point (49.66% vs 48.70%), with results announced June 22, 2026. The market had begun pricing this outcome earlier — declining from 42¢ to 18¢ between June 2-22 as the first-round results (May 31) showed De la Espriella ahead at 43.7% vs Cepeda at 40.9%, then collapsing to 1¢ on June 22 as the runoff results confirmed his loss.
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Causal record
Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
Reliability read
Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
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