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30 results for “Strait of Hormuz”
The July 15 Hormuz recovery market sat at 30.5% at 06:02 UTC Saturday, down 11 percentage points from Friday's open, as mine-clearance timelines far exceed the remaining contract window.
Filed June 27, 2026
The Hormuz recovery market holds at 47.5% YES at 02:40 UTC Saturday as 80 IMO-estimated mines block the transit threshold despite the US-Iran ceasefire.
Filed June 27, 2026
Hormuz July YES holds at 47.5% as of 01:18 UTC Friday, pinned by a mine-clearance timeline that lags the peace accord by months.
Filed June 26, 2026
Hormuz July YES has climbed to 56.5% as of 16:41 UTC Thursday, adding 11pp as ceasefire optimism outruns the mine-clearance clock.
Filed June 25, 2026
Hormuz July YES is at 48.5% as of 08:46 UTC Thursday; post-war traffic hit a weekend high but confirmed mines block the central channel from full recovery.
Filed June 25, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz July 31 recovery market prices at 48.5% Tuesday morning, as a two-month mine-clearance estimate runs against a 38-day deadline.
Filed June 23, 2026
The July 31 Hormuz normalization contract holds at 48.5% Tuesday with technical demining talks beginning in Switzerland and CENTCOM reporting 55 daily transits.
Filed June 23, 2026
The Hormuz July 31 normalization contract holds at 48.5% Tuesday — near contested — as mine-clearance timelines override the Iran peace-accord rally.
Filed June 23, 2026
Hormuz July 31 YES holds at 48.5% as of 04:50 UTC Tuesday, up 8pp from Monday's open, as the Pentagon cites a six-month mine-clearance timeline.
Filed June 23, 2026
Hormuz July-31 YES climbs to 48.5% at 23:36 UTC Monday, up 9pp from 39.5%, as US-Iran Switzerland talks yield a maritime safe-passage mechanism.
Filed June 23, 2026
The Hormuz June-recovery contract sits at 6.5% as of 21:27 UTC Monday — 1pp above Sunday's close — as a two-month mine-clearance timeline erases any prospect of the 60-vessel transit threshold by June 30.
Filed June 23, 2026
The Hormuz July 31 recovery contract trades at 49.5% as of 19:22 UTC Monday, up 9pp from the session open, after a 51.5% session high faded on mine-clearance math.
Filed June 22, 2026
The July 31 Strait of Hormuz normalization contract priced at 50.5% at 15:02 UTC Monday after a +10pp session surge, sitting near even money while mine clearance timelines and elevated insurance costs do the work politics cannot.
Filed June 22, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz return-to-normal YES contract held at 5.5% at 11:49 UTC Monday as shipping operators project a four-month wait before transit normalizes.
Filed June 22, 2026
Strait of Hormuz June YES at 5.5% Monday — down 2pp — as mine-clearance timelines swamp the eight-day window to resolution.
Filed June 22, 2026
At 7.5% as of 2026-06-21T05:22 UTC, the Hormuz June 30 normalization contract prices near-certain failure — a six-month mine-clearance clock is overriding a signed US-Iran memorandum of understanding with nine days to the deadline.
Filed June 21, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz recovery contract fell to 6.5% as of 00:21 UTC Sunday, surrendering Saturday's 10.5% session high as an eight-week mine-clearance timeline renders the June 30 deadline structurally unreachable.
Filed June 21, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz June traffic recovery contract reached 10.5% at 12:35 UTC Saturday—its 24-hour session high—but six-month mine timelines still make normalization a 1-in-9.5 shot.
Filed June 20, 2026
Hormuz YES holds at 9.5% Saturday morning, up 1pp in 24 hours, as mine-clearance timelines block June normalization regardless of the Iran peace accord.
Filed June 20, 2026
Polymarket's Strait of Hormuz traffic-normalization contract priced YES at 8.5% as of 02:31 UTC Saturday — down 6 points in 24 hours — as a two-month mine-clearance timeline dwarfs the June 30 deadline.
Filed June 20, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz traffic-recovery contract stands at 8.5% at 23:19 UTC Friday, down 6pp from a 14.5% open, as six-month mine-clearance timelines override the Iran peace accord.
Filed June 20, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz June-30 recovery contract has fallen to 9.5% as of 07:25 UTC on June 19, down 9pp in the 24-hour window, as mine-clearance timelines overwhelm the US-Iran peace deal's momentum.
Filed June 19, 2026
The Hormuz June normalization contract hit 12.5¢ at 05:41 UTC Friday — down 9 points in 24 hours — as AIS shows near-zero traffic and the transit MOU's drafts remain disavowed.
Filed June 19, 2026
The Hormuz June-normalization YES is at 13.5% on Friday, down 9 points in 24 hours, as mine-clearance timelines foreclose any end-of-month recovery.
Filed June 19, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz June-normalization contract priced at 14.5% as of 22:00 UTC Thursday, down 7.0 points on the session after only seven vessels transited since the June 15 accord.
Filed June 19, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz June-recovery contract holds at 18.5% on Wednesday, net 2pp above Tuesday's opening low, as a 40-to-50-day mine-clearance timeline and 10-to-40x war-risk insurance surge outpace the 13 days left to resolution.
Filed June 17, 2026
Hormuz end-of-June recovery prices at 18.5% Wednesday morning after YES takers lifted the mid, blocked by a 40-to-50-day mine-clearance timeline.
Filed June 17, 2026
Hormuz's June recovery contract trades at 17.5% as of 03:57 UTC Wednesday, pinned by mine-clearance and insurance barriers that outlast the Iran deal bounce.
Filed June 17, 2026
The Polymarket contract pricing Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic back to normal by June 30 is at 17.5% as of 15:12 UTC Tuesday, down 9 points on the day, after real-time AIS data confirmed no significant tanker movement since the Iran deal.
Filed June 16, 2026
Hormuz June-end contract at 17.5% at 09:15 UTC Tuesday, down 12 points in 24 hours, as 40-to-50-day mine-clearance timelines foreclose June resolution.
Filed June 16, 2026