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14 results for “interest rates”
The Fed no-change market hit 80.5% as of 04:45 UTC Friday — a 5pp gain in 24 hours — as May's softer monthly inflation print sidelines July hike bets.
Filed June 26, 2026
The 2026 Fed rate-hike contract sits at 57.5% as of 09:47 UTC on Tuesday, June 23, down 3pp from its 60.5% session high, as the FOMC's near-even internal split blocks a decisive repricing.
Filed June 23, 2026
The Polymarket July Fed rate-hike market holds at 24.55% as of 15:13 UTC Monday, up 4pp, with Chair Warsh's blank dot capping conviction.
Filed June 22, 2026
The Polymarket July Fed rate-hike contract is at 26.05% as of 10:38 UTC Friday — up 10.3 percentage points in 24 hours after nine FOMC members signaled a 2026 rate increase in Chair Warsh's debut dot plot.
Filed June 19, 2026
The July Fed hold trades at 71.5% Friday, 8pp below Thursday's opening, as the FOMC's nine hawkish dots signal a possible 2026 rate hike.
Filed June 19, 2026
The Polymarket contract pricing a July Fed hold sits at 71.5% as of 05:33 UTC Friday, down 8pp in 24 hours after nine FOMC officials signaled continued rate hikes.
Filed June 19, 2026
The Fed rate-hike YES contract reached 57% as of 19:53 UTC Wednesday, up 28.5pp from the session's 0.285 floor, after Warsh's debut dot plot showed 9 of 18 officials backing at least one 2026 hike.
Filed June 17, 2026
The December 2026 Fed rate-hike contract climbed 4 points overnight to 35.5% on Tuesday as Warsh's first FOMC meeting opens against elevated inflation expectations.
Filed June 16, 2026
At 80.45% as of 17:33 UTC Sunday, the zero-cuts contract has retreated 1.2 points from its 81.65% session high as profit-taking bites.
Filed June 7, 2026
The no-rate-cuts contract sits at 81.45% as of 14:48 UTC Sunday, having weathered the session's 1,717-share profit-taking exit and four named counter-position buyers since Friday's jobs blowout.
Filed June 7, 2026
The zero-cuts contract holds at 80.95% as of 23:28 UTC Saturday, off a 83.05% session peak driven by May's 172,000-job blowout.
Filed June 7, 2026
The zero-cuts contract holds at 80.95% at 21:05 UTC Saturday, up 9.3 pp, after May payrolls more than doubled analyst forecasts.
Filed June 7, 2026
The no-cuts contract holds at 82.1% as of 11:50 UTC Saturday — up 12.85pp from Friday's session open — after May payrolls doubled consensus at 172,000 new jobs.
Filed June 6, 2026
May's 172,000-job blowout — more than double the consensus — has driven the zero-cuts-in-2026 contract up 13.8 points to 83% on Saturday, erasing the last credible case for Fed easing.
Filed June 6, 2026