Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Order book
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Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Mid
19.4¢
Spread
90bp
μ-price
19.1¢
Last
19.0¢
21.5¢1.6k
21.3¢333
21.2¢463
20.5¢523
20.4¢3.5k
20.2¢1.3k
20.0¢339
19.9¢2.6k
↕ Spread19.4¢ · 90bp
19.0¢205
18.9¢670
18.8¢600
18.7¢618
18.6¢1.0k
18.5¢4.6k
18.4¢941
18.3¢1.0k
Σ bids 785k · Σ asks 1.44M · snapshot
DepthCumulative resting size on each side of the mid — how much liquidity you'd sweep walking the book. A steep wall = thick support; a flat side = thin, easy to push.
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Connecting…
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Recent tradesTaker prints — trades that hit a resting order. Live prints stream in on top (price/size only); the trader, notional and tx link fill in on the next refresh. Prints of $5k+ get a gold whale accent.
Source: data-api.polymarket.com/trades + live CLOB socket
CVD · sessionCumulative volume delta — buy size minus sell size since you opened the page. Rising means buyers are lifting offers; falling means sellers are hitting bids. Divergence from price is the signal.
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+0
buyers lifting
Awaiting trades…
Funds flow · 24hNet taker direction per hour. Green means money is pushing toward YES; red toward NO. Because it follows the aggressor, even hours where price barely moved can reveal real pressure.
Neutral
$0
Σ gross $0
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Computed from 200 taker prints · refreshed every 30s
Volume profileWhere the market actually changed hands. Each bin is 1¢ of YES price; the bar is USD notional traded at that level. The fattest bar (POC) is the price the market keeps coming back to.
POC 49¢
Σ $173.5k
50¢$23210×
49¢$84.6k1×
48¢$16.9k10×
47¢$15.4k11×
46¢$6.1k40×
45¢$3.6k57×
44¢$7.0k50×
43¢$11.5k14×
42¢$28.1k7×
9 price levels · from 200 trades
Top holdersThe biggest YES and NO holders right now, by share count. Click any name to open that wallet on Polygonscan.
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01 / 04
Discovery and headline state.Top of the funnel: scan what's moving, how the category's odds are spread, and which markets to drill into on the sections that follow.
Politics · 24h vol$4.8MAcross the top 50 contracts
Resting liquidity$15.5MOrder-book depth right now
Top mover ↑+17.5ppPete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?
Top mover ↓-5.8ppWill Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Move SurpriseToday's price move scaled by how much each market normally swings (its standard deviation). A ±2σ move is statistically significant; ±3σ is a shock that's usually news-driven, not noise.Today's move vs the usual swing
Probability distribution · top 50Where Politics markets are pricing right now. Navy bars count the markets in each probability band; gold overlays the 24h volume traded in that band.
Mean 26.1%
Σ vol $ 4.8M
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countYES probability (%)24h vol
Category SkewThe shape of the YES-price distribution across the category — whether prices cluster mid-book, lean to one side, or pin at the 0/100¢ edges. Tells you if the desk treats these as coin-flips or near-resolved.How this category's YES odds are spread
50 markets
Mean YES
26.1%
Median
10%
Skewness
+1.24
right-tailed (upside outliers)
Tails (≤5% / ≥95%)
48%
of markets pinned
Drift-red bars = ≤5% or ≥95% (pinned) · light = active range · gold line = mean
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Which markets move together.First pair by pair (the correlation heatmap), then the shared hidden factors driving those pairs (PCA factor analysis).
Pearson r · 7-day log-odds returns · hourly fidelity · refreshed every 5 min
Factor AnalysisPrincipal-component analysis finds the few hidden themes that explain most of how these markets move together — the first is usually the broad risk-on/risk-off tide. A high % explained means the desk is really trading one bet wearing many tickers.PCA · top 2 components explain 72% of co-movement
6 markets · 7d hourly returns
Variance explained
PC146.3%
PC225.6%
PC146.3%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?+0.74
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?-0.67
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?-0.05
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?+0.02
Iran leadership change by December 31?-0.02
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?-0.01
PC225.6%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?+0.74
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?+0.66
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?+0.09
Iran leadership change by December 31?-0.08
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?-0.08
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?-0.06
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Beneath the price.The order flow and ownership under the quote — who's buying, who's selling, and which wallets hold the position.
◆Order flow
Order-Book PressureDepth-weighted bid vs ask imbalance within 25¢ of mid. A bid-heavy book means more resting size wants to buy than sell — pressure pushing price up, and vice versa.Bid vs ask depth skew
spread% = (ask − bid) / mid · your transaction cost before you trade
No-vig Fair ValueStrip the bid-ask vig to get a fair YES price: fair = ask / (ask + (1 − bid)). The edge is fair − mid — how far the naive midpoint sits from fair value once the book's asymmetry is removed (largest on skewed longshot books). Cross cost is the half-spread you pay to take the touch. Ranked by |edge|.De-vigged price vs the quoted mid
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The whole category as one position.How the category is trending (sector index), how each market tracks it (beta, momentum, volatility), and where the strategy edges are.
Sector IndexEqual-weight basket · top 8 markets · 7d hourly
Sector▲ +1.3pp(+5.8%)·Will Benjamin Netanyahu be t…-15.1pp
Market BetaBeta is how hard a market swings relative to the basket. Beta 2 moves roughly twice as much as the average market; under 1 is calmer. High-beta names lead the basket on the way up and on the way down.How much each market moves vs the politics basket
4 markets · 7d hourly returns
Market
YES
β
R²
n
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
63%
+1.34
0.54
41
Iran leadership change by December 31?
8%
+1.19
0.61
45
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
19%
+0.81
0.43
45
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
10%
+0.66
0.22
41
β > 1 = amplifies the basket · β < 0 = inverse · R² = how much of the move is systematic
Momentum / Mean-ReversionDo moves persist or reverse? A high momentum score means a market that ran yesterday tends to keep running (trend-follow it); a low/negative score means it snaps back (fade it). It's the trend-vs-mean-reversion tell for each name.Which markets keep running after a move, and which snap back
ρ > +0.15 = momentum · ρ < -0.15 = mean-reverting · |ρ| < 0.15 = random walk
Volatility ConeEach market's typical daily price swing. Pinned, quiet markets sit on the left; the wild movers on the right. Use it to size positions — a 5pp day is routine for some names and a genuine shock for others.Typical daily swing per market
29 markets · 7d hourly
Gold band = p10–p90 envelope · red dots above p90 · grey dots below p10
◆Strategy edges
Naive Momentum BacktestA toy strategy: each day buy yesterday's biggest mover and hold 24h, over the last 7 days. It's a sanity check on whether momentum pays in this category right now — not investment advice, and it ignores fees and slippage.Chase yesterday's top mover · 7d
Day 1: Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by Novemb → -1.5pp
Day 2: Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by Decemb → +4.0pp
Day 3: Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ma → +5.0pp
Day 4: Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by Decemb → -14.0pp
Day 5: Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of I → +2.2pp
Day 6: Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Lea → +3.5pp
Illustrative only · no slippage, no spreads, survivor bias · solid = strategy · dashed = equal-weight basket
Multi-Leg Arb ScannerIn a clean multi-outcome event the YES legs should sum to 100¢. When they don't, there's a theoretical risk-free edge — buy the cheap basket, sell the rich one. Fees and thin depth usually eat small gaps, so treat it as a mispricing signal, not free money.Where do YES prices stop summing to 100¢?
≥3-leg events · ranked by |Σ - 1|
Next Press Secretary?+3283.85pp99 legs · Σ YES = 3383.9¢ · action: LAY every leg · top leg: Will Candidate X be the next White House… 50¢
Iran leadership change by...?−67.50pp3 legs · Σ YES = 32.5¢ · action: BACK every leg · top leg: Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? 23¢
Bars are median daily σ relative to the max bucket · ★ marks the most-volatile contract in each window
◆Term structure
Term StructureRelated markets resolving at different dates, lined up by horizon. For nested events ('X by Mar' ⊂ 'X by Jun') the curve should rise; the forward hazard between two expiries — (p_far − p_near)/(1 − p_near) — is the conditional probability priced into that interval. A flat curve prices no extra time; downward or non-monotonic flags differently-worded or mispriced contracts. Series are discovered live by grouping markets on a date-stripped question stem.Implied probability across expiries
upward = later dates price more · fwd = conditional prob priced into the next leg
◆Reliability
CalibrationEach point is a price bucket of resolved markets IN THIS CATEGORY: x = the market's forecast price (~7 days before close), y = the share that actually resolved YES. The dashed line is perfect calibration. Points below the line mean the market was overconfident (over-priced those outcomes); above means underconfident. Brier score grades overall accuracy (0 = perfect, 0.25 = always guessing 50%). Needs at least 20 resolved markets in the category to plot.Do N¢ markets resolve YES ~N% of the time? · politics markets
3094 resolved
Brier 0.083calibration error 3.3pp
Brier 0.083 (below the 0.25 coin-flip line — prices carry real information); well-calibrated (~3.3pp off the diagonal).
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Give your agent an edge
Your agent needs labelled data.
Raw prices are a commodity — every agent has them. The edge is in the labels: why each market moved, and a labelled corpus of how it resolved — ground truth to backtest against. Pipe all of it into Claude Code, Cursor, or any MCP client: 17 read tools, one token, no install.
VWAP DeviationVWAP is the volume-weighted average price of recent trades — what the average filled trader actually paid. A mid trading above VWAP means buyers are paying up; below means sellers are leaning on it.Mid vs volume-weighted avg of last 50 prints
+ mid above VWAP = bid-up since most volume traded · − mid below = sold off
CVD DivergenceCVD is the running net of taker buying minus selling (YES-normalized: buying Yes or selling No both add YES exposure). Read against the price over the same prints, it flags divergence — price up on net selling (bearish, the move lacks flow) or price down on net buying (bullish, quiet accumulation). When flow and price agree the move is confirmed.Cumulative volume delta vs the price move
bearish = price up on net selling · bullish = price down on net buying · CVD YES-normalized
Whale ConcentrationHow much of the position the top-10 holders control on each side, and which way they lean. High concentration means a few wallets can move the market; a lopsided lean shows where the conviction money sits.How concentrated the big holders are
Biggest single print: 0xFc2F4f50ce2F6045d35558A5E2D8d4b2aC6610c7-1769097007451YES $4k
+ YES = big tickets buying YES · − NO = big tickets buying NO · pair with whale concentration above
Around the Markets
Biggest movers right now¢is the market’s implied probability in cents — 56¢ means a ~56% chance. pp is the move in percentage points over the last 24 hours.