Apache Downing Lifts Iran-Invasion Odds 8pp to 25.5%
The U.S.-Iran invasion contract reached 25.5% at 17:28 UTC Thursday, up 8 percentage points on day-103 Apache-escalation buying.
The Polymarket contract pricing a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027 stood at 25.5% as of 17:28 UTC Thursday, up 8 percentage points from its 17.5% session floor at the start of the 24-hour window, on $955,673 in 24-hour volume. The catalyst: Iran's downing of a U.S. Army Apache attack helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz on day 103 of the ongoing US-Iran war.
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