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30 results for “prediction market”
The Polymarket exactly-4 M6.5+ earthquake bracket climbed to 63.25% at 00:24 UTC Saturday, up 32.1 percentage points in 24 hours, as a Philippines quake appeared to claim the resolution window's fourth qualifying slot.
Filed June 27, 2026
The 475,000-or-more Q2 bracket repriced 12.85pp to 48.6% YES as of 17:43 UTC Thursday — a near-coin-flip five days before quarter close on June 30.
Filed June 25, 2026
Elon Musk's 220-239 tweet bracket reached 40% at 21:54 UTC Wednesday, up 13.5 points in 24 hours, as traders price a concentrated posting burst into the June 26 settlement.
Filed June 25, 2026
Bitcoin's $60k-dip contract priced YES at 42% as of 15:08 UTC Tuesday, up 27pp in 24 hours, as a post-FOMC liquidation cascade pushes BTC through $64,000 support.
Filed June 23, 2026
The Hormuz July 31 recovery contract trades at 49.5% as of 19:22 UTC Monday, up 9pp from the session open, after a 51.5% session high faded on mine-clearance math.
Filed June 22, 2026
The 180–199 Musk tweet bracket sits at 52.5% as of 15:36 UTC Sunday, up 16.0 points on the session with 48 hours to the Monday close.
Filed June 21, 2026
At 7.5% as of 2026-06-21T05:22 UTC, the Hormuz June 30 normalization contract prices near-certain failure — a six-month mine-clearance clock is overriding a signed US-Iran memorandum of understanding with nine days to the deadline.
Filed June 21, 2026
Hormuz YES holds at 9.5% Saturday morning, up 1pp in 24 hours, as mine-clearance timelines block June normalization regardless of the Iran peace accord.
Filed June 20, 2026
Polymarket prices the Iran accord text-release at 29.5% as of 13:17 UTC Wednesday after CNN published the 14-point draft but the White House and Tehran both disputed its authenticity.
Filed June 17, 2026
Hormuz end-of-June recovery prices at 18.5% Wednesday morning after YES takers lifted the mid, blocked by a 40-to-50-day mine-clearance timeline.
Filed June 17, 2026
Argentina's World Cup YES contract holds at 9.65% at 21:12 UTC Tuesday — up 1.3pp from Monday's open — as Messi and key squad members are confirmed fit for tonight's World Cup debut against Algeria.
Filed June 17, 2026
Musk's June 15–17 tweet-count YES contract stands at 75% as of 18:17 UTC Tuesday, up 43pp from its 31.5% session open and roughly 22 hours from noon ET Wednesday settlement.
Filed June 16, 2026
The Hormuz June YES contract sat at 18.5% at 09:47 UTC Tuesday, down 11 percentage points in 24 hours as mine-clearance timelines and insurance barriers override Iran's peace accord.
Filed June 16, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz traffic-recovery contract trades at 22.5% at 17:27 UTC Monday as 40-50 day mine-clearance timelines block any June 30 resolution.
Filed June 15, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz recovery market priced YES at 29.5% at 04:17 UTC Monday after a volatile session swinging from a 0.125 floor to a 0.355 ceiling and back.
Filed June 15, 2026
The $67.5k Bitcoin June contract rose 12 points Saturday to 56.5%, a 36-point gap below the near-certain $65k floor now trading at 92.5%.
Filed June 14, 2026
The June-15 US–Iran permanent peace-deal contract hit 28.25% Saturday before crashing to 16.25% at 13:18 UTC on Trump's 'this weekend' signing signal.
Filed June 13, 2026
Hormuz recovery odds stand at 22.5% at 15:27 UTC Friday, 7pp above a 15.5% mid-session mark and 16pp above the 6.5% session open.
Filed June 12, 2026
The US-Iran ceasefire-extension contract trades at 24.15% as of 01:40 UTC Friday, up nearly 20 points from its overnight open, after Trump declared a deal was effectively agreed and awaiting signature.
Filed June 12, 2026
Germany's World Cup championship contract sits at 5.15% as of 01:07 UTC Friday, slipping 0.10pp from Thursday's 5.25% opening level as tournament play began.
Filed June 12, 2026
Elon Musk's 200-219 tweet bracket holds at 52.5% as of 12:18 UTC June 11 — 13 points above its 24-hour open — after the session high of 56.5% reversed twice before buyers stepped in.
Filed June 11, 2026
OpenAI's December 31 IPO contract sits at 42.5% as of 06:00 UTC Thursday after a failed overnight bounce, down 32 points over the prior 24 hours.
Filed June 11, 2026
The Polymarket contract for Elon Musk to post 200-219 tweets this week hit 56.5% at 04:47 UTC Thursday — up 30 points from the session open — as the window enters its final 35 hours before the Friday noon ET close.
Filed June 11, 2026
Elon Musk's 200-219 tweet bracket priced 53.5% Thursday, up 27 points in 24 hours, as the June 12 window close looms 38 hours away.
Filed June 11, 2026
The Cincinnati Reds prediction market sits at 38.5% as of 22:38 UTC Wednesday after San Diego's eighth-inning rally knotted the game 4-4, crashing the contract 48 points from its session high.
Filed June 11, 2026
The 40-64 tweet bracket sits at 56% as of 05:52 UTC Wednesday, up 12.5 points from Tuesday's open, with 10 hours until the noon ET resolution.
Filed June 10, 2026
The Camurus Oclaiz prediction market is pricing FDA approval at 89.25% as of 01:37 UTC Wednesday, up 9.75 points in 24 hours as the PDUFA decision deadline arrives.
Filed June 10, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz recovery contract held at 9.5% as of 19:42 UTC on June 9, with intraday bounces to 11.5% and 10.5% both faded as war-risk insurance at 4,000× pre-crisis levels keeps physical recovery out of reach.
Filed June 9, 2026
The Spurs climbed to 37.25% on Tuesday after Wembanyama's 32-point road win at MSG trimmed New York's 2026 Finals lead to 2-1.
Filed June 9, 2026
Anthropic's acquisition market priced YES at 7.5% as of 00:17 UTC Monday after a sharp intraday spike to 27% was faded; the contract opened the session at 6.5%.
Filed June 8, 2026