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30 results for “diplomacy”
The US-Iran final-deal market clawed back to 23.5% Wednesday on YES dip buying off a 22.5% session low, as the enrichment stalemate persists.
Filed June 24, 2026
US-Iran August 31 nuclear deal market hit session-low 22.5% as of 17:45 UTC Wednesday, down 5pp as enrichment-duration disputes persist.
Filed June 24, 2026
The US-Iran final nuclear deal market sits at 22.5% as of 12:30 UTC Wednesday, down 6 percentage points in 24 hours on widening enrichment impasses.
Filed June 24, 2026
The June 21 Iran-meeting contract is at 92.9% Sunday morning, up 39.85 points in 24 hours on Pakistan's in-person Burgenstock confirmation.
Filed June 21, 2026
The US-Iran June 21 meeting contract hit 94.05% at 22:54 UTC Saturday — up 86.75 points on the day — as Iran's delegation arrived in Switzerland for Burgenstock talks.
Filed June 21, 2026
The June 21 Iran diplomatic-meeting contract reached 87.1% Saturday evening as Pakistan confirmed Burgenstock talks with Witkoff and Araghchi both en route to Switzerland.
Filed June 20, 2026
The June 21 US–Iran meeting market hit 84.05% as of 19:36 UTC Saturday, up 69.5pp in 24 hours as Pakistan confirmed Sunday Burgenstock talks.
Filed June 20, 2026
US-Iran June 21 meeting market at 85.65% as of 17:32 UTC Saturday, with Witkoff, Kushner, and Araghchi all headed to Burgenstock for talks.
Filed June 20, 2026
The June 21 US–Iran in-person meeting contract hit 62.45% at 13:31 UTC Saturday as Witkoff departed for Switzerland to pursue a qualifying face-to-face session.
Filed June 20, 2026
The US-Iran June 21 diplomatic meeting contract reached 46.75% at 04:08 UTC Saturday, up 19.25pp on the day after a session swinging from a 5.95% floor to a 64.2% peak on Iran FM's pledge of talks 'in the coming days.'
Filed June 20, 2026
The June 30 US–Iran meeting contract hit 76.1% at 23:00 UTC Friday — up 18pp in 30 minutes — after Washington called today's Burgenstock cancellation a delay.
Filed June 20, 2026
Polymarket's June 19 US-Iran diplomatic-meeting contract fell to 21% as of 01:21 UTC Friday, down 41 points on the session.
Filed June 19, 2026
Iran's enrichment compliance market prints at 49.5% as of 08:10 UTC Wednesday, June 17—50 points below the 99.85% US-Iran peace framework—pricing a precise gap between deal-signed and pledge-made.
Filed June 17, 2026
The June-30 US-Iran permanent peace deal contract sits at 93.5% at 04:39 UTC Monday — up 44pp in 24 hours — as the June-15 deadline passes and a Switzerland signing is set for June 19.
Filed June 15, 2026
The June 14 Iran ceasefire-extension contract jumped 15.5pp to 26% as of 16:24 UTC Sunday, reversing a slide toward the session floor with roughly 11.5 hours left to the midnight ET deadline.
Filed June 14, 2026
The June-14 Iran ceasefire extension contract sits at 31.5% at 05:36 UTC Sunday — up 9.5pp on the day — as Trump's Truth Social signing pledge runs into Iran FM Baghaei's denial.
Filed June 14, 2026
The US-Iran nuclear-deal-by-June-30 contract sits at 47.5% as of 09:02 UTC Saturday, near coin-flip odds, as VP Vance prepares to travel to Geneva.
Filed June 13, 2026
The US-Iran June 30 permanent peace deal contract hit 31% Thursday, up 17.5pp on the session, as traders rotated from Monday's failing June 15 deadline to a longer negotiating runway.
Filed June 12, 2026
Hormuz recovery odds tripled to 20.5% Thursday as US airstrikes on Iran opened a forced-normalization path that diplomacy alone couldn't price in.
Filed June 12, 2026
The Polymarket Hormuz recovery contract settled at 8.5% at 17:29 UTC Wednesday, down from a session high of 10.5%, as insurance economics outlast ceasefire diplomacy.
Filed June 10, 2026
June Hormuz recovery holds at 21.5% Tuesday morning: eight-times pre-crisis insurance and 232 stranded vessels price what diplomacy alone cannot fix.
Filed June 2, 2026
At 21.5% at 02:55 UTC Tuesday, the June-end Hormuz recovery market prices a 15x shipping gap ceasefire diplomacy alone cannot close.
Filed June 2, 2026
The US-Iran June 7 permanent peace-deal contract sits at 7.5% early Monday, down 5pp in 24 hours on $1.26M volume, as Trump withholds MOU sign-off.
Filed June 1, 2026
The US-Cuba diplomatic meeting contract was at 89.8¢ at 14:46 UTC Sunday, up 31.5 points on a rare SOUTHCOM-Cuba military summit.
Filed May 31, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz June-end recovery market has declined to 33.5% as of 12:03 UTC May 30, down 4pp on the day, as traders price de-escalation and logistical normalization on entirely separate timelines.
Filed May 30, 2026
The May-31 US-Iran permanent-peace contract slid to a 6.5% session floor before recovering to 8.5% as of 19:29 UTC Friday, with the 60-day MOU awaiting Trump's approval explicitly failing the permanent-deal resolution bar even if signed.
Filed May 29, 2026
The US-Iran treaty contract hit a 24-hour low of 6.5% at 14:42 UTC Friday and bounced to 13.5%, still 11 points below the ceasefire-extension sibling at 24.5%.
Filed May 29, 2026
Ceasefire-extension contract at 25% on May 29, up 11.5pp in 24 hours, as negotiators' tentative 60-day MOU awaits Trump's final approval.
Filed May 29, 2026
Hormuz June-recovery contract at 36% as of 05:17 UTC May 29, up 1.5pp — still pricing a gap between ceasefire and ships moving.
Filed May 29, 2026
At 31.5% as of 01:07 UTC May 29 — up +7pp in 24 hours on $873,594 of volume — the ceasefire-extension-by-May-31 contract holds post-MOU residual as Trump's approval awaits.
Filed May 29, 2026