Every story is a market. Every market has a price.
14 results for “diplomacy”
June Hormuz recovery holds at 21.5% Tuesday morning: eight-times pre-crisis insurance and 232 stranded vessels price what diplomacy alone cannot fix.
Filed 5h ago
At 21.5% at 02:55 UTC Tuesday, the June-end Hormuz recovery market prices a 15x shipping gap ceasefire diplomacy alone cannot close.
Filed 11h ago
The US-Iran June 7 permanent peace-deal contract sits at 7.5% early Monday, down 5pp in 24 hours on $1.26M volume, as Trump withholds MOU sign-off.
Filed 1d ago
The US-Cuba diplomatic meeting contract was at 89.8¢ at 14:46 UTC Sunday, up 31.5 points on a rare SOUTHCOM-Cuba military summit.
Filed 2d ago
The Strait of Hormuz June-end recovery market has declined to 33.5% as of 12:03 UTC May 30, down 4pp on the day, as traders price de-escalation and logistical normalization on entirely separate timelines.
Filed 3d ago
The May-31 US-Iran permanent-peace contract slid to a 6.5% session floor before recovering to 8.5% as of 19:29 UTC Friday, with the 60-day MOU awaiting Trump's approval explicitly failing the permanent-deal resolution bar even if signed.
Filed 4d ago
The US-Iran treaty contract hit a 24-hour low of 6.5% at 14:42 UTC Friday and bounced to 13.5%, still 11 points below the ceasefire-extension sibling at 24.5%.
Filed 4d ago
Ceasefire-extension contract at 25% on May 29, up 11.5pp in 24 hours, as negotiators' tentative 60-day MOU awaits Trump's final approval.
Filed 4d ago
Hormuz June-recovery contract at 36% as of 05:17 UTC May 29, up 1.5pp — still pricing a gap between ceasefire and ships moving.
Filed 4d ago
At 31.5% as of 01:07 UTC May 29 — up +7pp in 24 hours on $873,594 of volume — the ceasefire-extension-by-May-31 contract holds post-MOU residual as Trump's approval awaits.
Filed 5d ago
At 41.5% as of 17:14 UTC, the May 31 ceasefire-extension contract rebounds 29pp off its floor after US-Iran negotiators confirmed a 60-day MOU pending Trump's approval.
Filed 5d ago
The end-of-June Strait traffic-recovery contract sits at 32.5% as of 13:07 UTC May 28 — down 17pp from its May 24 coinflip and 11pp in the last 24 hours alone.
Filed 5d ago
The May 31 ceasefire-extension contract fell to 16.5% on May 28, shedding 25 points after Trump ruled out sanctions relief for Iran.
Filed 5d ago
The May 31 US-Iran permanent peace deal contract fell to 7.5% at 11:17 UTC Thursday, down 12 points in 24 hours on $7.60M of volume.
Filed 5d ago