Ceasefire-Extension Contract at 31.5% With Trump's MOU Sign-Off Pending
At 31.5% as of 01:07 UTC May 29 — up +7pp in 24 hours on $873,594 of volume — the ceasefire-extension-by-May-31 contract holds post-MOU residual as Trump's approval awaits.
As of 01:07 UTC on May 29, the US-Iran ceasefire-extension-by-May-31 contract sits at 31.5% — up +7pp in 24 hours on $873,594 of volume. As Orakll covered Wednesday, a 60-day memorandum of understanding reached by US and Iranian negotiators spiked the contract to an intraday high of 0.44, but the price has since faded more than 12 points as Trump's endorsement has not materialized.
¶Why now
Orakll Subscriber
The rest of this story is for subscribers
The tape reads, the counter-view, and the priced-in math are for subscribers. Subscribe to read on.
Quant Dashboard
See where liquidity is positioning
Screener, order-book depth, correlation heatmap, and whale concentration — live.
Agent tokens
Wire your trading agent in 30 seconds
One URL + Bearer token into Claude Code, Cursor, or ChatGPT. Seventeen read tools.
Full articles
Read every story in full
The complete tape read, counter-view, and priced-in math on every report.
Read next
Politics Iran ceasefire-extension collapses to 16.5% after Trump rejects sanctions relief
The May 31 ceasefire-extension contract fell to 16.5% on May 28, shedding 25 points after Trump ruled out sanctions relief for Iran.
Filed May 28, 2026
Politics Iran May 31 ceasefire-extension contract round-trips to 39.5%
Polymarket's May 31 Iran ceasefire-extension contract trades at 39.5% as of 08:27 UTC Tuesday, down 12.5pp from yesterday's 52% framework-post close.
Filed May 26, 2026
Politics Iran ceasefire-extension contract rebounds to 52% on Trump 'framework' post
Polymarket's May 31 US–Iran ceasefire-extension contract jumped +14.5pp in 24 hours to 52% by 20:58 UTC May 25 on $509k of volume.