US-Iran 60-Day MOU Spikes Ceasefire Contract to 41.5%

The May 31 ceasefire-extension contract sits at 41.5% as of 17:14 UTC — 29pp above the 12.5% intraday floor it touched at 14:00 UTC — after US and Iranian negotiators confirmed a 60-day memorandum of understanding on ceasefire extension, pending President Trump's final approval. Orakll tracked the contract at 16.5% this morning before today's collapse and reversal; the session's $917,402 in 24h volume captures both legs of the round-trip. The permanent-peace sibling trades at 15% — a 26.5-point gap that prices the difference between a diplomatic pause and a permanent end to hostilities.

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