Iran ceasefire-extension contract rebounds to 52% on Trump 'framework' post
Polymarket's May 31 US–Iran ceasefire-extension contract jumped +14.5pp in 24 hours to 52% by 20:58 UTC May 25 on $509k of volume.
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Polymarket's May 31 US–Iran ceasefire-extension contract has round-tripped to 52% as of 20:58 UTC on May 25, up +14.5pp on $509k of 24-hour volume — a near-full reversal of this morning's collapse to 33.5% that the early tape had priced as a deadline breakdown rather than a slip.
¶Why now
The reversal traces to President Trump's Saturday social-media post saying that "a framework for a peace deal with Iran will be announced shortly" and that "an Agreement has been largely negotiated" (ABC7 News). The framework, first detailed by Axios on May 23, includes a 60-day MOU ceasefire extension paired with the Strait of Hormuz being de-mined and reopened in exchange for sanctions waivers on Iranian oil sales (Axios). The tape shows the move was demand-led: between 20:47 and 20:49 UTC, wallet "Blaring-Backdrop" (0x8a98…1b92) lifted YES in a stacked sequence including 476.29 contracts at $0.54 and 431.25 contracts at $0.53, and 12 of the 15 most recent prints were YES buys. The book closed at a 1¢ spread (best bid $0.51, ask $0.52) with a $3,237.44 size wall parked at the $0.48 bid.
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