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27 results for “Iran ceasefire”
The Hormuz recovery market holds at 47.5% YES at 02:40 UTC Saturday as 80 IMO-estimated mines block the transit threshold despite the US-Iran ceasefire.
Filed June 27, 2026
The Hormuz recovery contract holds at 29.5% Monday, blocked below 30% by mine-clearance timelines and insurance-premium spikes despite the ceasefire.
Filed June 15, 2026
The Hormuz-recovery contract surged late Sunday before retreating to 25.5% at 22:42 UTC, as insurance costs and mine-clearance timelines continue to cap the YES case.
Filed June 15, 2026
The June 14 Iran ceasefire-extension contract jumped 15.5pp to 26% as of 16:24 UTC Sunday, reversing a slide toward the session floor with roughly 11.5 hours left to the midnight ET deadline.
Filed June 14, 2026
The June-14 Iran ceasefire extension contract sits at 31.5% at 05:36 UTC Sunday — up 9.5pp on the day — as Trump's Truth Social signing pledge runs into Iran FM Baghaei's denial.
Filed June 14, 2026
The June-13 Iran ceasefire extension market hit 24% at 16:52 UTC Saturday — up 15.5pp from 8.5% in under 25 minutes — as Pakistan's PM says a deal could be signed within 24 hours.
Filed June 13, 2026
The Hormuz-recovery contract is at 21.5% as of 15:01 UTC Saturday, up 5pp on the day, as insurance and mine-clearance walls hold firm on ceasefire day 7.
Filed June 13, 2026
The Hormuz traffic-recovery contract sat at 19.5% as of 14:00 UTC Saturday, pulling back from a 23% session high as mine-clearance timelines and war-risk insurance premiums cap any ceasefire-driven upside with 17 days until June 30.
Filed June 13, 2026
The Hormuz June-30 contract is at 19% as of 17:15 UTC Friday — up 11.5pp from open, capped by mine-clearance delays and war-risk premiums.
Filed June 12, 2026
Hormuz recovery odds stand at 22.5% at 15:27 UTC Friday, 7pp above a 15.5% mid-session mark and 16pp above the 6.5% session open.
Filed June 12, 2026
The Hormuz end-of-June recovery contract reached 24% Friday after Trump's ceasefire extension spurred YES buying; mine-clearance timelines and $1M-per-ship tolls cap the upside.
Filed June 12, 2026
The July 31 Hormuz recovery contract holds at 44.5% as of 03:12 UTC Friday, 25pp above its June 30 sibling at 19.5%.
Filed June 12, 2026
The US-Iran ceasefire-extension contract trades at 24.15% as of 01:40 UTC Friday, up nearly 20 points from its overnight open, after Trump declared a deal was effectively agreed and awaiting signature.
Filed June 12, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz recovery contract sits at 8.5% as of Wednesday evening — down 1pp on the session — as 4,000× war-risk premiums and a mine backlog outlast nearly a week of ceasefire.
Filed June 10, 2026
US-Iran ceasefire extension odds hold at 43.5% Wednesday, down 1 point as nuclear and Hormuz deadlocks persist with 20 days left to the June 30 deadline.
Filed June 10, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz normalization contract held at 9.5% late Tuesday — 20 days from the June 30 deadline — as 4,000-fold insurance premiums and uncleared mines outlast the ceasefire.
Filed June 10, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz June-recovery contract slipped to 11.5% as of 01:15 UTC Monday, with transit counts at just 11% of normal and no escort program active.
Filed June 8, 2026
The end-of-June Hormuz traffic contract holds at 15.5% as of 03:19 UTC Thursday, down 5pp on the day, with mine-clearance timelines and naval blockade routing pricing out a June normalization.
Filed June 4, 2026
Just four daily transits versus a 60-average resolution bar kept the Hormuz June recovery contract at 20.5% Wednesday, down 1pp.
Filed June 3, 2026
At 21.5% as of 04:03 UTC Tuesday, the June-end Hormuz recovery contract has shed 6pp in 24 hours, pricing a structural logistics collapse that a ceasefire alone cannot fix.
Filed June 2, 2026
The July-31 Hormuz traffic-normalization contract sits at 48.5% as of 13:05 UTC Sunday, down 7 points from its 0.555 session open as the May MOU deadline expires unsigned.
Filed May 31, 2026
As of 12:43 UTC May 30, the May-31 US–Iran ceasefire-extension contract hit 12.5¢—its 24-hour floor, down 14pp—as Trump stalls on approving the tentative 60-day MOU with the deadline 39 hours out.
Filed May 30, 2026
The May 31 ceasefire-extension contract fell to 16.5% on May 28, shedding 25 points after Trump ruled out sanctions relief for Iran.
Filed May 28, 2026
Polymarket's May 31 Iran ceasefire-extension contract trades at 39.5% as of 08:27 UTC Tuesday, down 12.5pp from yesterday's 52% framework-post close.
Filed May 26, 2026
The contract on a US-announced Iran ceasefire extension by tonight's 11:59 PM ET deadline trades at 8.5% as of 05:17 UTC May 26, down 7 points on $635k of 24h volume.
Filed May 26, 2026
Polymarket's May 31 US–Iran ceasefire-extension contract jumped +14.5pp in 24 hours to 52% by 20:58 UTC May 25 on $509k of volume.
Filed May 26, 2026
Polymarket's May 31 US-Iran ceasefire-extension market sits at 33.5% as of 05:58 UTC May 25, after a one-day collapse of 41.5 points.
Filed May 25, 2026