Stalled Talks Keep Iran Extension Odds Contested at 43.5%
US-Iran ceasefire extension odds hold at 43.5% Wednesday, down 1 point as nuclear and Hormuz deadlocks persist with 20 days left to the June 30 deadline.
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The Polymarket contract on a US-Iran ceasefire extension or new agreement by June 30 is priced at 43.5% as of 10:00 UTC Wednesday, down 1 point over the prior 24 hours. The session oscillated across a 10-point range — rising from 0.445 at the open to a session high of 0.505 at 15:12 UTC Tuesday before sliding to a session low of 0.405 at 00:23 UTC Wednesday, then recovering to 0.435 — a choppy arc that mirrors the unresolved state of negotiations.
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