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The July 15 Hormuz recovery market sat at 30.5% at 06:02 UTC Saturday, down 11 percentage points from Friday's open, as mine-clearance timelines far exceed the remaining contract window.
Filed June 27, 2026
The Hormuz recovery market holds at 47.5% YES at 02:40 UTC Saturday as 80 IMO-estimated mines block the transit threshold despite the US-Iran ceasefire.
Filed June 27, 2026
Elon Musk's 65-89 tweet bracket fell to 8.65% at 01:32 UTC Saturday, down 26.75 percentage points over 24 hours as the rival 40-64 bracket claimed 85% probability with 14.5 hours to close.
Filed June 27, 2026
Bitcoin's June 27 market prices DOWN at 84.5% as of 01:25 UTC Saturday, sustaining the $397M liquidation cascade that locked in BTC's June 26 noon ET reference.
Filed June 27, 2026
The Polymarket exactly-4 M6.5+ earthquake bracket climbed to 63.25% at 00:24 UTC Saturday, up 32.1 percentage points in 24 hours, as a Philippines quake appeared to claim the resolution window's fourth qualifying slot.
Filed June 27, 2026
OpenAI's December IPO market sits at 22% as of Friday night, down 10 percentage points in 24 hours on a reported 2027 delay and Anthropic's rival S-1 filing.
Filed June 27, 2026
The Polymarket contract on an OpenAI year-end IPO fell to 20.5% Friday after reports emerged that CFO Sarah Friar is backing a 2027 delay as Anthropic prepares to list first.
Filed June 26, 2026
London's 36°C bracket surged 32.25pp over 24 hours to a session high of 50.75%, trading at 48.65% at 10:46 UTC Friday as London City Airport already reads 35°C and forecasts point to 97°F.
Filed June 26, 2026
Shanghai's 27°C temperature bracket hit a session high of 97.5¢ at 07:49 UTC Friday, up 61 percentage points from 36.5¢ on confirmed ZSPD temperature data.
Filed June 26, 2026
The Fed no-change market hit 80.5% as of 04:45 UTC Friday — a 5pp gain in 24 hours — as May's softer monthly inflation print sidelines July hike bets.
Filed June 26, 2026
Hormuz July YES holds at 47.5% as of 01:18 UTC Friday, pinned by a mine-clearance timeline that lags the peace accord by months.
Filed June 26, 2026
Apple's No. 2 market-cap odds fell 41pp to 32% as of 21:05 UTC Thursday as AAPL shed 5.2% on Mac and iPad price hikes driven by an AI memory shortage.
Filed June 26, 2026
Hormuz July YES has climbed to 56.5% as of 16:41 UTC Thursday, adding 11pp as ceasefire optimism outruns the mine-clearance clock.
Filed June 25, 2026
Hormuz June YES hit 14.25% Thursday—up 11.75pp from its 2.5% open—as the Islamabad Memorandum fires conviction but IMF Portwatch records just 5 transits.
Filed June 25, 2026
Germany YES at 63.05% as of 13:17 UTC Thursday — up 9.55 percentage points from Wednesday's open with kickoff against Ecuador at 20:00 UTC.
Filed June 25, 2026
Germany's win odds sit at 63.25% as of 12:20 UTC Thursday, pulling back from the 65.85% overnight peak as a 177,553-share ask wall stalls buyer momentum hours before kickoff.
Filed June 25, 2026
The Hormuz July-31 contract climbed to 53.5% at 10:41 UTC Thursday on record post-accord weekend tanker traffic, with central-channel mines the remaining wildcard.
Filed June 25, 2026
Hormuz July YES is at 48.5% as of 08:46 UTC Thursday; post-war traffic hit a weekend high but confirmed mines block the central channel from full recovery.
Filed June 25, 2026
Hong Kong's 32°C YES contract hit 85.5% at 05:18 UTC Thursday — a 49.5-point overnight gain — after the Observatory's main station confirmed the exact resolution threshold at midday.
Filed June 25, 2026
Germany's World Cup odds vs. Ecuador sit at 65.75% as of 04:10 UTC Thursday — up 13.25pp from the session open of 52.5% — with $3.26M in 24-hour volume driving the sustained overnight bid.
Filed June 25, 2026
Venezuela's M7.2 and M7.5 appear to have pushed the USGS M7+ running tally to 10, firing the exactly-10 bracket to 76% at 01:21 UTC Thursday.
Filed June 25, 2026
London City Airport's 14:20 UTC METAR read 34°C on Wednesday, pushing the '35°C or below' YES contract to 94.5% — up 28pp in 24 hours.
Filed June 24, 2026
Seoul's 27°C same-day heat bracket hit 60.5% at 05:57 UTC Wednesday, up 53.5 points from a 7% open, as Incheon Airport reads 79°F mid-afternoon.
Filed June 24, 2026
Hormuz July YES priced at 46.5% at 04:01 UTC Wednesday, down 2pp from Tuesday's open, as daily transits at 14–20% of pre-conflict levels leave the ≥60-call resolution bar more than double current run-rates.
Filed June 24, 2026
Colombia's World Cup YES at 68.5% as of 02:24 UTC Wednesday, up 5pp from pre-match levels, with 73% possession and no goals through 26 minutes against DR Congo in Guadalajara.
Filed June 24, 2026
England's group-stage win contract priced at 83.5% as of 20:01 UTC Tuesday — a 3pp gain on the day — as $4.53M in 24-hour volume hit the tape at kickoff in Foxborough.
Filed June 23, 2026
Hormuz July YES at 46.5% at 15:20 UTC Tuesday, down 5pp, as mine-clearance timelines and war-risk insurance hold recovery below even money.
Filed June 23, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz July 31 recovery market prices at 48.5% Tuesday morning, as a two-month mine-clearance estimate runs against a 38-day deadline.
Filed June 23, 2026
The July 31 Hormuz normalization contract holds at 48.5% Tuesday with technical demining talks beginning in Switzerland and CENTCOM reporting 55 daily transits.
Filed June 23, 2026
The Hormuz July 31 normalization contract holds at 48.5% Tuesday — near contested — as mine-clearance timelines override the Iran peace-accord rally.
Filed June 23, 2026