Hormuz June Recovery Holds at 21.5%, 16pp Above Treaty Odds
The June-end normalization contract held at 21.5% at 17:45 UTC Tuesday, sustaining a 16-point premium over Iran permanent-peace-deal odds at 5.5%.
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The Strait of Hormuz June-end recovery contract held at 21.5% as of 17:45 UTC Tuesday — 16 points above the 5.5% permanent-peace-deal odds — as covered in today's earlier session. The price is down 1pp from the 24-hour open of 22.5%, having touched a session low of 0.185 before recovering; the session high was 0.235, both per market-history data. With 28 days to the June 30 deadline, the spread encodes a specific trader read: logistics normalization can cross the resolution bar without a signed treaty.
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