Hormuz June Recovery Collapses to 32.5% as Shipping Physics Diverge from Diplomacy
The end-of-June Strait traffic-recovery contract sits at 32.5% as of 13:07 UTC May 28 — down 17pp from its May 24 coinflip and 11pp in the last 24 hours alone.
The Polymarket end-of-June Strait of Hormuz traffic-recovery contract has fallen to 32.5% as of 13:07 UTC May 28 — down 11pp in the last 24 hours and 17pp below the near-coinflip 49.5% Orakll tracked on May 24. The contract resolves Yes only if the IMF Portwatch 7-day moving average of Strait transits reaches 60 or above before June 30.
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22¢implied▼−3.0 ptsFiled 4d ago
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