Hormuz June Recovery Collapses to 32.5% as Shipping Physics Diverge from Diplomacy
The end-of-June Strait traffic-recovery contract sits at 32.5% as of 13:07 UTC May 28 — down 17pp from its May 24 coinflip and 11pp in the last 24 hours alone.
Market data temporarily unavailable
- Contract
- Condition
The Polymarket end-of-June Strait of Hormuz traffic-recovery contract has fallen to 32.5% as of 13:07 UTC May 28 — down 11pp in the last 24 hours and 17pp below the near-coinflip 49.5% Orakll tracked on May 24. The contract resolves Yes only if the IMF Portwatch 7-day moving average of Strait transits reaches 60 or above before June 30.
¶Why now
Orakll Subscriber
The rest of this story is for subscribers
The tape reads, the counter-view, and the priced-in math are for subscribers. Subscribe to read on.
Quant Dashboard
See where liquidity is positioning
Screener, order-book depth, correlation heatmap, and whale concentration — live.
Agent tokens
Wire your trading agent in 30 seconds
One URL + Bearer token into Claude Code, Cursor, or ChatGPT. Seventeen read tools.
Full articles
Read every story in full
The complete tape read, counter-view, and priced-in math on every report.
Read next
Politics Eight Days, Two Months: Hormuz June YES at 5.5%
Strait of Hormuz June YES at 5.5% Monday — down 2pp — as mine-clearance timelines swamp the eight-day window to resolution.
Filed June 22, 2026
Politics Hormuz June YES Hits 12.5¢ Floor as MOU Dispute Anchors Fleet
The Hormuz June normalization contract hit 12.5¢ at 05:41 UTC Friday — down 9 points in 24 hours — as AIS shows near-zero traffic and the transit MOU's drafts remain disavowed.
Filed June 19, 2026
Politics Hormuz June YES Slides to 13.5% as Mine-Clearance Math Holds
The Hormuz June-normalization YES is at 13.5% on Friday, down 9 points in 24 hours, as mine-clearance timelines foreclose any end-of-month recovery.
Filed June 19, 2026